The Weekly Reflektion 13/2026
We would all like to lead fulfilling lives for as long as possible. We are lucky to live in times where both life expectancy and quality of ‘late-life’, are increasing. However, we often don’t understand the factors that influence our life expectancy, and we fail to adjust our lifestyle and habits. Effectively we leave it up to chance. How disappointed we are when death takes us earlier than expected. Similarly, when we don’t experience a Major Accident, we may not really understand why, and we are also disappointed when the Major Accident occurs on our facility. Wouldn’t it be good to know, so that we can do something about it.
What are the factors that will determine whether you have a Major Accident?
A research project led by Julianne Holt-Lunstad, at Brigham Young University, posed the question ‘what it would take to live to 100 years old and beyond’. The project covered 10s of thousands of middle-aged people, and she and her team looked at every aspect of their lifestyles. Their diet, their exercise, their marital status, whether they smoked, whether they drank, etc, etc. These were recorded at the start of the project and were updated during the project. The research team waited for seven years and then looked at the factors that influenced the people’s mortality. The results of the project are shown above. The two most important factors were social. Close relationships, having someone to turn too that could help in difficult situations, with money, sit with you if you are sick, need a lift to the hospital etc. Social interaction was the most important factor, and the key point was talking to people. Not just close family and friends, but anyone that you come in contact with.
To avoid Major Accidents, you need to understand what causes them, and what factors you need to focus on to prevent them. Industry has traditionally focused on lagging indicators, such as injury rates, lost time accidents, high potential (HIPO) incidents. The intention is of course to investigate these and implement measures to prevent or reduce recurrence. Today it is widely accepted that leading indicators are better, for example:
· Quality and frequency of safety-critical maintenance
· Completion of safety training and competency checks
· Effectiveness of hazard identification and reporting
· Workforce engagement in safety processes
· Adherence to operational procedures
These indicators are arguably analogous to the determinants of life expectancy: they shape the conditions under which outcomes emerge.
A key challenge in major accident prevention is that such events are low probability but high consequence. This makes them difficult to predict using historical data alone. Just as a population may appear healthy despite underlying risk factors, an organisation may appear “safe” based on low incident rates while critical controls are degrading. Leading indicators act as early warning signals, highlighting weaknesses in barriers and controls before they fail. They allow organisations to intervene early, reducing the likelihood of catastrophic events. If we want to influence outcomes, we must understand and manage the factors that drive them.
The research into life expectancy identified social interaction as the most important factor, and this is also a factor in the prevention of Major Accidents. Taking time to talk to people, to understand their work situation, their concerns, and their limitations.
Investigations into Major Accidents have of course, the benefit of hindsight. People interviewed during the investigation were often aware of the factors that lead to the failures that caused the accident. They could have told us so, if we had asked them.