The Weekly Reflektion 47/2024
Reflekt will organise a breakfast seminar Wednesday 27th November. In the seminar we will consider what the offshore petroleum industry can learn from the Grenfell Tower fire in 2017.
The seminar will be held at the Quality Hotel Pond in Forus from 0800 to 1000. A light breakfast will be served beforehand. There is plenty of free parking at and around the hotel. Please let us know if you would like to attend.
Climate change will undoubtably have a major influence on society in the years to come. Whether it be the direct effects of changes to climate, or the consequences of the mitigation measures that we are taking to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, we will all be affected. Exactly how these changes will impact our operations is not known for sure, however it is likely that there will be more severe extreme weather events. These events are not new, however they need to be considered in a new context so that we are prepared.
How will climate change affect your operation?
On 2 November 1994, a five-hour thunderstorm led to flash floods that affected 124 villages in Egypt. Near the village of Dronka, Asyut, the flooding coincided with a lightning strike near a complex of eight oil tanks maintained by the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation as a strategic reserve for the Egyptian Army. Three of the tanks caught fire and about 15,000 tonnes of oil leaked from the tanks. There was no bund wall or secondary containment. The oil mixed with floodwaters that were being held back by an embankment at a nearby railway line. The embankment collapsed, and the water and flaming oil washed into Dronka, a village of 10,000 people. 496 people were killed, and 200 homes were destroyed. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) registered the incident as the highest mortality event caused by lightning since records began in 1873.
Following the incident, Nottingham City Council carried out an assessment of how a similar incident at the Colwick Oil Terminal, east of Nottingham, could have affected the city and its population. The conclusion was that a combination of fire, leaking storage tanks, heavy rain and severe flooding couldhave resulted in thousands of fatalities and the destruction of much of the city. The Colwick Oil Terminal was decommissioned in 2022, although it is not clear whether the risks as described were a factor in the decision to close the terminal. Heavy rain in Nottingham in September 2024 did cause severe flooding so one element of the worst-case scenario was in place.
Some governments, local authorities and industries are taking the risks associated with severe weather events seriously and are putting measures in place. These measures include both,prevention of loss of containment, and reduction in the consequences of any release. Constructing scenarios and running these through a risk assessment process is a useful approach.
One of the interesting points that is emerging from increasing extreme weather events is a change in strategy from ‘protect all’ to ‘risk reduction’. Moving away from ‘protect all’ is a recognition that people can no longer choose freely where they will live. Areas subject to repetitive extreme weather events may need to be evacuated and new areas provided for buildings for homes, factories, schools etc. Insurance companies are already refusing to reinsure properties in exposed areas, and governments and local councils have limited resources to provide the contingencies required. The focus on risk reduction is to ensure the measures taken meet the ALARP principle that we are familiar with in industry.